NOAA's spring outlook places North Texas squarely inside an elevated severe-weather corridor for the 2026 season. The combination of a lingering La Niña pattern, unusually warm Gulf moisture, and a sharp jet stream means hail-producing supercells are likely to fire earlier — and more often — than the ten-year average.
What the models are showing
Forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center are highlighting a ridge–trough pattern that historically delivers our most damaging hail days. We are already seeing the setup translate into ground truth: April produced three separate hail events of 1.75" or larger inside Dallas and Tarrant counties alone.
What this means for your roof
Hail above 1.5" is the threshold where most asphalt shingle systems begin showing functional damage — granule loss, fractured mat, compromised seal strips. Anything above 2" almost guarantees a full replacement claim if your policy is written on a replacement-cost basis.
- Pull your declarations page and confirm whether you're on ACV or RCV.
- Photograph your roof from the ground now, before any storm hits.
- Save the date stamp on those photos — they become claim evidence.
- Clear gutters and trim overhanging limbs before the first big cell.
What we're doing
Our StormShield members are already in our 24/7 monitoring queue. The second a qualifying cell tracks over your address, you get a text and we put you in the front of the post-storm inspection line. If you're not enrolled yet, this is the season to do it.